Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d10…940a sports 1274 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (205 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,165 (+11%) realized +$2,155 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%580W / 531L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day204.7pace
Fees−$274est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,744
7 days−$1,108
14 days+$1,244
30 days+$1,244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$4,841
other 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (205 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 566 -20.1% -27.7% 39% 39% -21.3%
≤30d 1111 +5.7% -4.4% 52% 51% -2.8%
≤90d 1111 +5.7% -4.4% 52% 51% -2.8%
all 1111 +5.7% -4.4% 52% 51% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover204.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 51% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 48% -12.1%
15% -21.9% 44% -20.6%
20% -29.5% 39% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$763
Realized+$2,155
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses580 / 531
Est. fees paid−$274
Open positions48
Markets (closed)1111 / 1274
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day204.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 1111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Erel (-1.5) vs Tabata (+1.5) Tabata 47¢ 51¢ $102 $111 +$9 (+9%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Leviatán Esports 43¢ 42¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 37¢ 47¢ $37 $47 +$10 (+27%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ 38¢ $53 $41 −$12 (-22%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 69¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ 44¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 37¢ 34¢ $34 $31 −$2 (-7%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 61¢ 74¢ $22 $27 +$5 (+22%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 48¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 38¢ $26 $23 −$4 (-13%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 72¢ 76¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jacopo Vasami 72¢ 76¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Senegal 81¢ 78¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 74¢ 74¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 54¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Fabian Marozsan 46¢ 42¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Rio Noguchi 52¢ 60¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+14%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? No 58¢ 88¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+53%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 59¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 44¢ 44¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 58¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 452 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
FC Volendam vs. Telstar 1963: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: OX (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Mi Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-7.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Casper Ruud vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Baptiste vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 51¢ $5 19m
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer SELL Florian Broska 73¢ $5 20m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 45¢ $4 20m
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer SELL Florian Broska 73¢ $5 21m
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 43¢ $88 30m
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Florian Broska 34¢ $5 31m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 20¢ $4 39m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 13¢ $2 41m
Fery vs. Samuel: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 49m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 64¢ $5 50m
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Marco Cecchinato 53¢ $4 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 60¢ $5 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Marco Cecchinato 57¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 60¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 71¢ $9 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 72¢ $30 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 72¢ $8 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 55¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $6 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 74¢ $9 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 71¢ $29 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 72¢ $8 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 67¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 62¢ $4 1h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Kyrgios BUY Shelton 51¢ $78 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $2 2h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 29¢ $5 2h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 29¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $762.97 · official $762.99 (match) · 3500 history records