Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d11…5e49 other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$32
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$43
sports 24% −$23
politics 7% −$5
economics 7% −$7
culture 5% −$6
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage138d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 20 $642 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $902 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $695 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $552 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $341 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $891 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $329 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $543 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $496 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $168 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $132 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $822 −$2 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $472 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $333 −$2 -1%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 02 $475 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $223 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $60 3h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 3h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 5h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 7h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 8h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 16h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 18h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 19h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 21h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 22h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 24h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 31h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 33h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 41h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 43h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 44h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 46h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 47h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $61 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $45 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1410 history records