Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d12…7d66 crypto 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$239 (-11%) realized −$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate38%53W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day64.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$214
14 days−$214
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$249
tech 3% −$57
world 1% −$9
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -16.7% -24.6% 40% 14% -20.9%
≤30d 138 -17.7% -25.5% 38% 15% -22.9%
≤90d 138 -17.7% -25.5% 38% 15% -22.9%
all 138 -17.7% -25.5% 38% 15% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 15% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 8% -30.3%
15% -39.2% 3% -37.0%
20% -45.1% 1% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses53 / 85
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage27d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day64.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$9 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $57 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $33 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $78 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $73 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1814 history records