Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d17…5de2 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-6%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$158
other 11% −$56
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -11.4% -19.8% 49% 39% -21.1%
≤30d 41 -11.4% -19.8% 49% 39% -21.1%
≤90d 41 -11.4% -19.8% 49% 39% -21.1%
all 41 -11.4% -19.8% 49% 39% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 39% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 34% -28.6%
15% -34.5% 32% -35.5%
20% -40.9% 27% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$29 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage3d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $148 −$22 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $113 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$33 +311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $119 +$78 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $29 +$31 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $99 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $23 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $82 −$50 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $54 +$20 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $98 +$44 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $24 −$9 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $28 +$20 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $116 +$29 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +55%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $117 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $23 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $113 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $86 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records