Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d1d…587b sports 548 markets active 0h ago coverage 746d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+3%) realized +$163 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%275W / 258L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$39
14 days+$36
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$276
other 11% −$9
crypto 8% −$47
politics 7% −$56
world 1% −$4
economics 0% −$11
tech 0% −$5
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +18.1% +6.8% 53% 47% +3.4%
≤30d 157 +2.2% -7.5% 47% 43% -15.1%
≤90d 229 +1.3% -8.4% 48% 45% +16.2%
all 533 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 48% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 48% -5.9%
10% -15.7% 45% -14.9%
15% -23.9% 42% -23.1%
20% -31.3% 38% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

746d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$163
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses275 / 258
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions15
Markets (closed)533 / 548
History coverage746d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-68%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-71%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 181 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 +$2 +99%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$4 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -71%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -64%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$9 -89%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$2 +87%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$5 +152%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -72%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$1 -61%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +75%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +259%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$4 +44%
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -61%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) SELL Panama 97¢ $35 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 84¢ $30 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 20¢ $3 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 53¢ $3 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $5 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $2 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 47¢ $3 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $2 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.50 · official $104.54 (match) · 1207 history records