Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d1d…ed4a
crypto · 520 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$15,944 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15,703 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized+$15,703
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses315 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)517 / 520
History coverage2d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day1333.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 517 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13,741
7 days+$15,703
14 days+$15,703
30 days+$15,703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Up 2¢ 2¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Up 1¢ 2¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Up 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 85¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Down 72¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Down 88¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $496 $0 −$496 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $500 −$496 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $541 −$12 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $522 −$6 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $208 +$22 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$49 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $161 +$20 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $333 +$231 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $576 +$24 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $519 +$75 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $465 +$126 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $137 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $199 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $224 +$43 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $444 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $525 +$75 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $558 +$42 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $583 +$17 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $552 +$48 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $587 +$13 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1,075 +$125 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $532 +$86 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $132 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $176 +$22 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $116 +$84 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $222 +$19 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $417 +$175 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $482 +$118 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $386 +$214 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $589 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $476 +$124 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $666 +$135 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$15,704
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $64 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $495 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $515 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $12 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $51 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $24 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $500 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $87 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $324 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $123 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $35 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $14 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 517 -3.3% -12.5% 61% 36% -2.5%
≤30d 517 -3.3% -12.5% 61% 36% -2.5%
≤90d 517 -3.3% -12.5% 61% 36% -2.5%
all 517 -3.3% -12.5% 61% 36% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1333.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 36% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 17% -11.9%
15% -28.6% 9% -20.4%
20% -35.6% 6% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.54 · official $25.54 (match) · 3500 history records