Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8D 0x8d1f…8a42 sports 6 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$822 (-46%) realized −$822 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$820
other 18% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -38.8% -44.6% 0% 0% -69.6%
≤30d 6 -38.8% -44.6% 0% 0% -69.6%
≤90d 6 -38.8% -44.6% 0% 0% -69.6%
all 6 -38.8% -44.6% 0% 0% -69.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.6% 0% -69.6%
10% ← realistic here -49.9% 0% -72.5%
15% -54.8% 0% -75.1%
20% -59.2% 0% -77.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$138 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$822
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $516 −$309 -60%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $838 −$500 -60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $310 −$8 -3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 −$9 -15%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $313 41h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $507 41h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $197 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $302 41h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 53¢ $322 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $52 42h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $52 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $67 42h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 77¢ $49 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 42h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $6 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $191 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 45h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $122 45h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 45h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 78¢ $50 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 45h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 45h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 45h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records