Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:11:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d20…c3ab crypto 966 markets active 10h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$316 (-6%) realized −$316 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%395W / 571L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$330
sports 5% −$139
other 4% −$5
weather 1% −$10
world 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -17.1% -25.0% 39% 39% -24.6%
≤30d 842 -8.7% -17.4% 42% 42% -16.6%
≤90d 966 -7.7% -16.5% 41% 40% -17.1%
all 966 -7.7% -16.5% 41% 40% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 40% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 39% -25.0%
15% -31.8% 37% -32.3%
20% -38.4% 34% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses395 / 571
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)966 / 966
History coverage45d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 966 Trades
no open positions (358 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$9 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1768 history records