Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8d24…f689 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+14%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$7
other 16% +$7
sports 7% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 48% -6.7%
≤30d 31 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 48% -6.7%
≤90d 31 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 48% -6.7%
all 31 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 48% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 48% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 45% -15.6%
15% -24.5% 32% -23.8%
20% -31.9% 16% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +83%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$11 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$11 +204%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$14 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records