Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d2a…399f other 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,518 (-1%) realized −$1,518 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%31W / 142L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,411per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$27
14 days−$54
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1,690
politics 39% −$109
sports 11% +$254
world 4% −$12
economics 2% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 58 +1.7% -8.0% 12% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 136 -6.7% -15.6% 8% 4% -10.6%
all 173 +1.5% -8.2% 18% 12% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 12% -10.1%
10% -16.9% 12% -18.7%
15% -25.0% 10% -26.6%
20% -32.3% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,677) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$21 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,518
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses31 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,411
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $654 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $226 +$1 +1%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $5,191 −$8 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $6,626 −$7 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,766 −$6 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,742 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $145 +$2 +2%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,409 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,581 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $10,045 −$10 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $422 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $5,824 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,557 −$4 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $691 −$1 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $63 +$62 +97%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $608 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $69 +$45 +65%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,452 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $565 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $4,651 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $52 +$45 +86%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $317 +$1 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $963 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 31 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $2,224 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,855 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $325 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $7,334 −$6 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,180 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $268 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $304 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $639 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $640 2h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $257 25h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 27h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $227 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $228 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $275 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $276 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $271 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $271 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $230 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $230 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $624 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $625 4d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $706 5d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $707 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $731 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $732 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $583 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $584 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $755 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $756 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $610 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $611 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $646 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $647 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $614 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $615 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $610 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $611 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 625 history records