Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d34…17e8 crypto 680 markets active 1h ago coverage 1062d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$596 (-14%) realized −$726 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%48W / 617L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$66
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$529
other 18% −$17
sports 16% −$5
finance 5% +$173
economics 3% −$95
world 3% −$1
politics 2% −$93
tech 1% −$15
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +52.6% +38.1% 21% 21% +1.9%
≤30d 61 +51.7% +37.2% 11% 11% -21.6%
≤90d 89 +4.7% -5.2% 8% 8% -30.5%
all 665 -48.0% -52.9% 7% 6% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.9% 6% -28.7%
10% -57.4% 6% -35.6%
15% -61.5% 6% -41.8%
20% -65.3% 5% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$4 · ×9.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1062d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$726
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses48 / 617
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)665 / 680
History coverage1062d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? Yes 10¢ 36¢ $21 $77 +$56 (+260%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 12¢ 40¢ $8 $28 +$19 (+229%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $6 $26 +$19 (+305%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 10¢ 38¢ $6 $23 +$18 (+294%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 12¢ 33¢ $8 $23 +$15 (+175%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+127%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $49-$56 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+408%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +170%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $1 +$59 +5520%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$18 -83%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $52 −$51 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $104 +$97 +94%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$17 +165%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -86%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $7 −$3 -44%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -93%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 11? Jun 10 $0 $0 -94%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -94%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Solana dip to $40 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$4 -47%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -40%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 07 $0 +$6 +2400%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 5? Jun 07 $0 +$43 +8991%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 07 $1 +$52 +7184%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 7? Jun 06 $0 $0 -94%
Will Solana dip to $50 June 1-7? Jun 06 $0 $0 -94%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $0 $0 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 56m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 57m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 2¢ $0 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 2¢ $0 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 2¢ $0 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 2¢ $0 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 3¢ $1 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 3¢ $0 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 12¢ $1 2d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 30¢ $60 4d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 3¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 2¢ $2 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.31 · official $191.98 (match) · 1687 history records