Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8D 0x8d35…bf0a crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$97 (+22%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$92
14 days+$92
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$69
sports 23% +$40
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +24.1% +12.2% 50% 45% +15.8%
≤30d 22 +24.1% +12.2% 50% 45% +15.8%
≤90d 27 +29.7% +17.3% 48% 44% +13.7%
all 27 +29.7% +17.3% 48% 44% +13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.3% 44% +13.7%
10% +6.1% 37% +2.8%
15% -4.1% 30% -7.1%
20% -13.5% 22% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage50d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$50 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$23 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $19 +$41 +213%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 03 $25 +$34 +136%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $4 +$17 +436%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records