Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d36…56c6 politics 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 434d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% $0
politics 22% −$1
other 13% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 20% 0% -9.4%
all 21 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

434d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage434d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $22 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $62 +$3 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $94 −$1 -1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 25 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 24 $19 $0 -1%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 23 $19 $0 +2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 16 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $44 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $0 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $22 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $11 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $0 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $11 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $44 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $48 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $47 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $47 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $14 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $21 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $15 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $15 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $46 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $47 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $20 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $42 10d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 341d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.68 · official $43.68 (match) · 70 history records