trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -3.5% | -12.7% | 20% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -3.5% | -12.7% | 20% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 21 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 38% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.2% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -18.8% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -26.7% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $44 | $44 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 16 | $94 | $0 | -0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 15 | $5 | −$1 | -20% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 15 | $22 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $62 | +$3 | +4% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 14 | $94 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 26 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Jun 08 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad | Apr 25 | $19 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad | Apr 24 | $19 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? | Apr 24 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mark Carney lose his seat? | Apr 23 | $19 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 21 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 21 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? | Apr 20 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? | Apr 19 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can | Apr 17 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? | Apr 17 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? | Apr 16 | $21 | $0 | +0% |