Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8D 0x8d39…4ec9 sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$311 (-28%) realized −$310 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$333
other 18% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -15.3%
≤30d 3 -38.0% -43.9% 0% 0% -43.4%
≤90d 3 -38.0% -43.9% 0% 0% -43.4%
all 3 -38.0% -43.9% 0% 0% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 0% -43.4%
10% -49.2% 0% -48.8%
15% -54.1% 0% -53.7%
20% -58.6% 0% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$111 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$310
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage20d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $294 −$19 -6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $305 −$23 -8%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $300 −$291 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $275 24m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $294 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $203 1h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $282 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $47 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $29 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $23 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $44 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $28 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $80 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 33¢ $300 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.70 · official $198.70 (match) · 18 history records