Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d3b…acdf world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$3
other 12% −$3
weather 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 14% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 14 -0.9% -10.3% 21% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -0.9% -10.3% 21% 0% -10.1%
all 32 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -10.4%
10% -20.4% 3% -19.0%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage472d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $23 −$2 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 01 $6 $0 +5%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 19 $1 $0 +27%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 18 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 15? Mar 15 $12 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 12? Mar 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 10 $15 +$1 +7%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April? Mar 07 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 43m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $3 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $1 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $29 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $22 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $1 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 29¢ $21 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $23 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $3 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.70 · official $29.40 (match) · 102 history records