Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8d3c…2b52 sports 186 markets active 14h ago coverage 1203d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$255 (-14%) realized −$255 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%103W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$13
14 days+$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$58
other 13% −$141
crypto 6% −$59
finance 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.4% +9.8% 80% 80% +18.3%
≤30d 36 -22.8% -30.1% 47% 39% -12.0%
≤90d 129 +9.0% -1.4% 59% 53% -7.0%
all 184 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 51% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 51% -22.4%
10% -19.7% 42% -29.8%
15% -27.5% 33% -36.6%
20% -34.6% 21% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses103 / 81
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 186
History coverage1203d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $18 +$7 +37%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $7 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $7 +$3 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 +$5 +83%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Jun 20 $10 +$7 +68%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $86 +$10 +12%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $91 +$9 +10%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 +$3 +43%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $4 −$1 -31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$3 +43%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 11 $7 +$3 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -93%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $66 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$21 +212%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $13 +$7 +55%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $5 +$2 +41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 24 $4 +$6 +150%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 22 $7 +$3 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 20 $5 +$5 +109%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka May 18 $6 +$4 +65%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 18 $5 +$5 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $4 +$6 +150%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 08 $6 −$6 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 07 $5 +$5 +108%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 06 $1 +$9 +900%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $6 +$4 +67%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 06 $6 +$4 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 44¢ $4 13h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $16 13h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $3 13h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 54¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 68¢ $7 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 84¢ $10 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both BUY 59¢ $10 8d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 8d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo SELL Power Rangers 96¢ $95 8d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo SELL Power Rangers 96¢ $0 8d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 86¢ $43 8d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 86¢ $43 8d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 12d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $21 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 91¢ $91 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 20¢ $2 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $4 14d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $8 14d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $8 14d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 70¢ $7 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $9 14d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 15d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z $1 15d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 35¢ $4 15d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $3 15d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 15d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 98¢ $98 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 419 history records