Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d40…7831 weather 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%71W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$3
weather 23% $0
other 14% −$8
economics 14% +$1
crypto 11% $0
sports 4% −$8
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 46 -0.0% -9.6% 26% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 110 -0.0% -9.6% 34% 0% -9.5%
all 159 -5.2% -14.3% 45% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -10.1%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses71 / 88
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage545d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C or higher on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 26? Jun 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 10°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 4? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 59°F or below on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Scott Schlagel be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL? Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 2? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Natalie Rivera be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey Jun 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by May 31? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 31? May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 21, 2026? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 30? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nationalist Party win the third-most seats in the House of Repres May 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on May 29? May 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 3 and 4 days? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 29? May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 29? May 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? May 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28? May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 28? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 27? May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 27? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 26 May 25 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $17 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $8 5h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $13 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 10°C or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 10°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $7 40h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $18 47h
Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $19 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $13 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $6 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $2 22d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $19 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $3 22d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 22d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 59°F or below on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 23d
Will Scott Schlagel be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL? SELL No 100¢ $6 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.88 · official $28.88 (match) · 354 history records