Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:57:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d41…0ed3 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$803 (-7%) realized −$803 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate28%23W / 60L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$5
other 45% −$798
politics 5% −$1
sports 2% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +8.0% -2.3% 38% 12% -9.1%
≤30d 30 +1.1% -8.5% 30% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 38 +0.7% -8.9% 26% 5% -9.6%
all 83 -3.5% -12.7% 28% 4% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 4% -15.9%
10% -21.0% 2% -24.0%
15% -28.6% 2% -31.3%
20% -35.6% 2% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$25 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses23 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage477d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $144 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $136 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $135 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $133 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 −$3 -10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $126 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8 +$6 +74%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $193 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $15 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $254 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $376 +$2 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $146 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $253 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $381 −$3 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $275 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $121 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $11 −$4 -35%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $134 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $115 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $262 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $129 −$7 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $124 +$11 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $110 −$6 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $275 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 22 $127 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $20 −$1 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $271 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $249 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $13 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $598 −$2 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $144 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $25 −$1 -2%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $14 +$12 +85%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-12-20? Dec 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $11 $0 +4%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2025-12-12? Dec 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 10 $62 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2025-12-12? Dec 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $137 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $136 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $136 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $63 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $73 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $136 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $102 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $102 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $94 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $125 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $124 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $16 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $109 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $28 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $113 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $15 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $126 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.89 · official $136.89 (match) · 447 history records