Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8d43…3f6c sports 1069 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,334 (-1%) realized −$1,351 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate72%771W / 297L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$527est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$45
14 days−$77
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$1,421
crypto 17% −$367
other 0% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 33% +0.4%
≤30d 103 +0.2% -9.3% 78% 57% -13.8%
≤90d 613 -5.9% -14.8% 67% 55% -13.3%
all 1068 -0.8% -10.3% 72% 48% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 48% -10.7%
10% -18.9% 31% -19.2%
15% -26.7% 17% -27.0%
20% -33.9% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$67 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$1,351
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses771 / 297
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$527
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1068 / 1069
History coverage223d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1068 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 86¢ 100¢ $108 $125 +$17 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $93 +$15 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $80 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $24 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $71 +$3 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $126 −$112 -88%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$11 +54%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $28 +$14 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $62 +$37 +59%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $27 +$10 +38%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 +$17 +43%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$3 +21%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$11 -91%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$11 -88%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $132 −$117 -89%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $161 −$159 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $122 +$39 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $108 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $108 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $93 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $93 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $80 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $27 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $24 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $71 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $19 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $18 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $13 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $15 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $126 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $63 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 79¢ $50 10d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $31 11d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $20 11d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $42 11d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 56¢ $4 11d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $24 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.12 · official $125.12 (match) · 2902 history records