Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d46…03b7 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-5%) realized −$21 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$107
other 34% +$204
crypto 27% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -7.0%
≤30d 6 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -15.5%
≤90d 6 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -15.5%
all 6 -29.4% -36.1% 33% 33% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 33% -15.5%
10% -42.2% 33% -23.6%
15% -47.8% 33% -31.0%
20% -52.9% 17% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$58 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage8d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $127 −$125 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $37 −$36 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $102 +$184 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $51 1h
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $37 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.16 · official $75.16 (match) · 13 history records