Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

8D 0x8d47…8387 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$219 (+22%) realized +$220 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%12W / 11L

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day17.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-16.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-7.2%	-16.0%	52%	52%	+10.3%
≤30d	23	-7.2%	-16.0%	52%	52%	+10.3%
≤90d	23	-7.2%	-16.0%	52%	52%	+10.3%
all	23	-7.2%	-16.0%	52%	52%	+10.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.0%	52%	+10.3%
10%	-24.1%	35%	-0.2%
15%	-31.4%	35%	-9.9%
20%	-38.1%	30%	-18.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +28% → late -39% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$9 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$234

Realized+$220

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses12 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)23 / 27

History coverage3d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day17.2

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$95	$94	−$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$60	$60	+$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	61¢	62¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	−$2	-3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$5	$0	-8%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	−$1	-17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 21	$36	−$36	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$3	+60%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$3	+50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$15	+$7	+46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$46	+$52	+114%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$5	−$2	-34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$167	+$84	+50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$50	+$10	+19%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$96	+$59	+62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$13	−$9	-71%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$95	+$11	+12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$6	+62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$30	+$20	+67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$64	+$9	+14%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$5	+$1	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	67¢	$24	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$96	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$51	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	67¢	$24	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	4¢	$5	1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	7¢	$4	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$30	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$5	2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	76¢	$15	10h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	48¢	$15	11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$15	11h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$15	11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	58¢	$3	11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$66	17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	94¢	$40	19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	87¢	$5	28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.36 · official $234.36 (match) · 66 history records