Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8d47…25c5 sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$363 (+7%) realized +$418 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate89%31W / 4L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day58.2pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,061now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$820
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +19.7% +8.3% 89% 49% +9.2%
≤30d 35 +19.7% +8.3% 89% 49% +9.2%
≤90d 35 +19.7% +8.3% 89% 49% +9.2%
all 35 +19.7% +8.3% 89% 49% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.3% 49% +9.2%
10% ← realistic here -2.1% 31% -1.2%
15% -11.5% 31% -10.8%
20% -20.2% 29% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$89 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,061
Realized+$418
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses31 / 4
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage2d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day58.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 55¢ $376 $379 +$3 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under 93¢ 91¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ 46¢ $156 $147 −$9 (-6%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 62¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 69¢ 68¢ $128 $125 −$3 (-2%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 32¢ $128 $86 −$42 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $130 −$96 -74%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $191 +$23 +12%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $252 +$224 +89%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$17 +165%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $97 +$3 +3%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $100 +$13 +13%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $139 +$63 +46%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $25 +$19 +76%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $100 +$8 +8%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $235 +$18 +8%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $119 +$6 +5%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $309 +$208 +68%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $71 −$70 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $235 +$34 +14%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $34 +$6 +17%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $168 +$2 +1%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $597 +$403 +68%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $8 +$1 +6%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $40 +$4 +11%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $18 $0 +1%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $21 +$15 +70%
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $64 +$45 +70%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $105 +$10 +10%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $179 −$177 -99%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $10 +$10 +97%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $21 +$1 +3%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $7 $0 +3%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $30 +$2 +6%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $55 +$1 +1%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $31 +$28 +91%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $303 +$11 +4%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 +$8 +83%
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $391 +$42 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $26 5m
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 7m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $87 17m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $71 24m
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $129 37m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $129 38m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $381 41m
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 46m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $160 53m
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $41 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $59 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $71 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $20 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $90 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $50 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $48 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $100 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $97 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $4 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $69 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $20 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $100 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $51 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $74 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $35 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $50 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $67 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,061.27 · official $1,072.08 · 121 history records