Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d47…5ff5 other 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$47
sports 22% −$23
politics 8% −$6
crypto 7% −$6
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 165 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage138d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $125 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 21 $248 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $762 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $427 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $159 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $359 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $346 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $550 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $275 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $362 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $134 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $354 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $530 −$2 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $225 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $290 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $281 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $840 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $164 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $142 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $550 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $241 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 9m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 3h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 5h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 9h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 11h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 13h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 14h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 18h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 19h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 22h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 24h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $12 24h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $12 25h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 30h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 32h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 34h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 36h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 37h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 38h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $56 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 41h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 43h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 44h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1421 history records