Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d48…3ba7 weather 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+1%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$3
weather 16% +$1
crypto 6% +$1
other 5% −$7
economics 5% $0
world 5% −$3
sports 3% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +2.5% -7.2% 73% 9% -8.7%
all 32 +2.9% -6.9% 72% 6% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 6% -8.6%
10% -15.8% 6% -17.3%
15% -23.9% 3% -25.3%
20% -31.4% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.88 per $1 lost it wins $5.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$513
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage177d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on June 8? Jun 07 $190 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $211 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 15 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 24? May 13 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on April 9? Apr 23 $105 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $101 +$28 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on April 13? Apr 23 $191 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $575 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on April 1? Apr 01 $111 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $767 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on March 19? Mar 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $760 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on March 18? Mar 18 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 14? Mar 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $397 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $331 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 02 $192 −$7 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $276 −$3 -1%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Feb 25 $73 +$49 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on February Feb 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on February 4? Feb 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 4 Feb 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 18 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 31°F or below on January 23 Jan 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 20 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the War Powers Resolution on Iran (H.Con.Res.38) be signed into l Jan 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ângela Maryah qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal p Jan 20 $24 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 20 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $111 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $190 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $211 34d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $133 60d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 78¢ $101 61d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $140 71d
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $191 71d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $105 75d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $574 81d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $575 83d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $111 83d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $714 84d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $715 85d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $490 87d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $490 88d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $766 92d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $767 94d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $759 94d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $760 95d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $55 95d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $75 96d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $518 96d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $518 98d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $20 101d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $397 105d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $397 107d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $331 107d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $331 108d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $185 111d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $273 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.74 · official $512.21 (match) · 82 history records