Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d48…197c sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$517 (-7%) realized −$531 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days−$54
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$528
other 6% +$101
crypto 1% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +12.3% +1.6% 50% 44% -18.1%
≤30d 34 +11.6% +1.0% 56% 53% -9.1%
≤90d 50 +3.6% -6.3% 54% 48% -16.0%
all 50 +3.6% -6.3% 54% 48% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 48% -16.0%
10% -15.3% 34% -24.0%
15% -23.4% 28% -31.3%
20% -30.9% 22% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$52 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$531
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage72d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Pakistan 72¢ 89¢ $72 $89 +$17 (+24%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Under 34¢ 30¢ $34 $30 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $19 +$31 +165%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $31 +$60 +197%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$28 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$36 -65%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Wil Jun 14 $5 +$10 +202%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $99 +$11 +11%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $17 +$3 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $82 +$5 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $120 −$79 -66%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $55 −$27 -49%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $52 −$10 -20%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $56 +$14 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 +$89 +109%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $42 +$58 +140%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +65%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $34 −$33 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $430 −$119 -28%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $173 +$27 +16%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -27%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $41 +$15 +37%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $39 +$11 +29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $23 +$17 +71%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $12 +$8 +64%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $14 +$11 +73%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 27 $200 −$187 -93%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 23 $178 +$24 +13%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $145 +$35 +24%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 19 $100 −$24 -24%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 19 $219 −$46 -21%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 19 $207 +$45 +22%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $173 +$37 +21%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $271 −$125 -46%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $576 +$9 +2%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $244 +$1 +0%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Apr 12 $147 −$115 -78%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $1,267 −$268 -21%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $6 +$4 +67%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $899 −$14 -2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants - Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $625 +$134 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 60¢ $12 27m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 80¢ $16 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 73¢ $3 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 73¢ $4 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 73¢ $4 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 73¢ $4 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 73¢ $29 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $8 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 11h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 37¢ $19 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $21 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 67¢ $7 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco BUY 6¢ $10 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $31 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 80¢ $40 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 24¢ $12 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 20¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $12 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY 35¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $56 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $110 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $20 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 90¢ $61 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 90¢ $1 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 90¢ $37 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 83¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.50 · official $120.50 (match) · 280 history records