Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d4d…cfd8 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$430 (-16%) realized −$419 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$189
other 33% +$24
world 21% −$102
politics 4% −$99
economics 2% −$50
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.7% -8.0% 75% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 4 +1.7% -8.0% 75% 0% -6.9%
≤90d 7 -41.9% -47.4% 43% 0% -26.2%
all 17 -32.7% -39.1% 47% 18% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 18% -26.2%
10% -45.0% 6% -33.2%
15% -50.3% 6% -39.7%
20% -55.2% 6% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$59 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized−$419
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage143d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $125 $125 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $102 +$8 +8%
Sharjah announces secession from UAE by May 31? Jun 17 $376 +$4 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee May 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? May 04 $7 −$7 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $30 +$42 +140%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $337 +$14 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on January 31 Jan 31 $150 +$12 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 31 $523 −$255 -49%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $250 +$31 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $40 +$8 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $202 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $80 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $154 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $107 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $53 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $111 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $102 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 4d
Sharjah announces secession from UAE by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $376 50d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 103d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 119d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 119d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 119d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 119d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? SELL Yes 89¢ $72 140d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY No 11¢ $50 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 140d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 140d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 141d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on January 31 SELL Yes 86¢ $162 141d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $167 141d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $170 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on January 31 BUY Yes 79¢ $150 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? SELL No 50¢ $268 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY No 98¢ $223 142d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL No 0¢ $0 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY No 97¢ $300 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.31 · official $364.31 (match) · 45 history records