Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8d4e…bc6a crypto 392 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$520 (-7%) realized −$519 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%154W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$209
14 days−$209
30 days−$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$701
other 1% $0
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -31.0% -37.6% 48% 44% -47.8%
≤30d 203 -8.0% -16.8% 53% 52% -15.3%
≤90d 381 -9.4% -18.0% 40% 39% -18.2%
all 385 -9.4% -18.0% 40% 39% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 39% -18.2%
10% -25.8% 37% -26.0%
15% -33.0% 30% -33.2%
20% -39.6% 26% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$519
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses154 / 231
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)385 / 392
History coverage115d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 37¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-28%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$3 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 +$6 +152%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 +$2 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$52 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$52 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$46 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $32 +$76 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $31 +$17 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 31h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 31h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 31h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $9 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.79 · official $38.86 (match) · 742 history records