Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8D 0x8d53…6ac7 other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-1%) realized −$75 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate30%22W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days−$62
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$76
sports 8% +$2
economics 5% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +183.1% +156.1% 33% 33% -9.3%
≤30d 17 +52.8% +38.2% 12% 12% -10.7%
≤90d 72 +8.9% -1.4% 28% 12% -10.3%
all 74 +8.9% -1.5% 30% 12% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 12% -10.3%
10% -10.9% 7% -18.9%
15% -19.5% 3% -26.7%
20% -27.4% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$828
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses22 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage92d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $817 $817 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,810 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $935 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $164 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $80 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $176 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $81 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $165 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $71 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $156 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $1 $0 -26%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $81 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $73 $0 -0%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 06 $4 $0 +12%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $84 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $97 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics May 01 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $85 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $6 +$1 +23%
Thunder vs. Suns May 01 $11 +$3 +23%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $85 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $817 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $817 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $818 4h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $815 4h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $816 24h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $816 24h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $817 27h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $817 27h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $818 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 34h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 34h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $65 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $76 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $76 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 25d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 25d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 27d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $81 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $827.89 · official $827.93 (match) · 247 history records