Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d54…6ce7 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,238 (-19%) realized −$4,017 · open −$221
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$554per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days−$6,687
14 days−$4,699
30 days−$4,284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$4,963
sports 4% +$44
crypto 2% +$327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -15.8% -23.8% 57% 36% -45.3%
≤30d 38 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 45% -27.4%
≤90d 38 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 45% -27.4%
all 40 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 42% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 42% -27.6%
10% -22.8% 30% -34.5%
15% -30.3% 25% -40.9%
20% -37.1% 22% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$677) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$653 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$4,017
Unrealized−$221
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage149d
Avg bet$554
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 34¢ $747 $526 −$221 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $680 +$81 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$174 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $329 +$177 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$16 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $188 −$184 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $208 −$19 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $173 +$35 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $677 +$117 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $186 +$7 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $551 −$449 -82%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $527 +$23 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,122 −$594 -53%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $141 +$11 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,715 −$2,574 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,430 +$1,281 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $822 −$807 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $484 +$339 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $458 +$27 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $292 +$166 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $147 +$145 +99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $456 −$310 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,068 −$614 -57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,625 −$3,606 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,729 +$1,893 +110%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $64 +$40 +62%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $360 −$297 -82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,117 −$759 -68%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $676 +$1,025 +152%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $304 +$52 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $257 +$46 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $263 +$415 +158%
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Grand Canyon Antelopes Jan 22 $94 −$94 -100%
Raptors vs. Kings Jan 22 $88 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $758 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $760 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $680 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $680 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $505 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $505 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $329 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $188 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 45¢ $189 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $208 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $208 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $173 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $794 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $484 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $193 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 85¢ $194 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $186 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $102 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.70 · official $556.33 · 86 history records