Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d54…2764
crypto · 726 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$235 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$235 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$235
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses492 / 233
Open positions1
Markets (closed)725 / 726
History coverage121d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 725 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 64¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$13 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$11 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 50% -18.2%
≤30d 92 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 50% -18.2%
≤90d 616 -3.6% -12.8% 73% 47% -10.6%
all 725 -6.4% -15.3% 68% 46% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 46% -11.0%
10% -23.4% 25% -19.5%
15% -30.8% 23% -27.3%
20% -37.6% 22% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.14 · official $4.14 (match) · 3500 history records