Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

8D 0x8d54…16fa other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$160 (+35%) realized +$160 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown64%max

Avg bet$77per market

Trades / day5.6pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-7.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+2.0%	-7.7%	50%	50%	+0.7%
≤30d	6	+2.0%	-7.7%	50%	50%	+0.7%
≤90d	6	+2.0%	-7.7%	50%	50%	+0.7%
all	6	+2.0%	-7.7%	50%	50%	+0.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.7%	50%	+0.7%
10%	-16.5%	50%	-9.0%
15%	-24.6%	50%	-17.8%
20%	-32.0%	0%	-25.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$30 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$160

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$77

Trades / day5.6

Drawdown64%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$89	−$88	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$51	−$2	-4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$95	+$37	+40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$131	+$60	+46%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Jun 17	$4	−$1	-19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$90	+$45	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	80¢	$48	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	62¢	$49	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$41	3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$132	14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$95	24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$191	39h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL Yes	18¢	$3	41h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY Yes	23¢	$4	45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$131	45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$90	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records