Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:56:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d59…fefe weather 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$115 (-2%) realized −$37 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate76%53W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$256
14 days−$7
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$87
world 5% −$80
politics 3% +$25
other 2% −$88
culture 1% −$6
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -4.3% -13.4% 78% 19% -16.8%
≤30d 57 +4.9% -5.1% 81% 30% -9.7%
≤90d 70 +1.0% -8.6% 76% 27% -11.6%
all 70 +1.0% -8.6% 76% 27% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 27% -11.6%
10% -17.4% 13% -20.1%
15% -25.3% 6% -27.8%
20% -32.7% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$44 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses53 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage40d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? No 65¢ 26¢ $130 $52 −$78 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $98 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$30 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $130 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $80 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $65 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $80 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $80 −$33 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $213 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $114 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $110 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $66 +$33 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $65 −$41 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $140 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$21 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $141 −$83 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $136 −$37 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $376 +$37 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $180 −$175 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $212 +$42 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $210 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $209 −$126 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $191 +$23 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $198 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $191 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $165 −$9 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $41 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $72 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $165 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $212 +$74 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $213 +$64 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $194 +$39 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $243 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $121 +$21 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $114 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $110 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 5? Jun 05 $120 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $132 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $60 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $80 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 45h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 47h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 55¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 59¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 61¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $65 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $49 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $213 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $99 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $114 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $110 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 34¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 48¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $65 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $66 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.39 · official $52.39 (match) · 179 history records