trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-75%) |
| Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-91%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 12 | $17 | +$6 | +36% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +59% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +75% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +53% |
| Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid | Jun 08 | $20 | −$19 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET | Jun 01 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -9.8% | -18.4% | 50% | 50% | -35.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -8.0% | -16.8% | 56% | 44% | -32.5% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -8.0% | -16.8% | 56% | 44% | -32.5% |
| all | 9 | -8.0% | -16.8% | 56% | 44% | -32.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.8% | 44% | -32.5% |
| 10% | -24.7% | 44% | -39.0% |
| 15% | -32.0% | 44% | -44.9% |
| 20% | -38.7% | 33% | -50.3% |