Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d5b…6c2a sports 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,286 (+14%) realized +$3,277 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%93W / 89L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$622now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days+$922
14 days+$922
30 days+$1,313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$3,374
other 7% −$242
finance 3% +$7
crypto 1% −$25
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +75.3% +58.6% 70% 70% +28.8%
≤30d 41 +13.5% +2.7% 56% 44% +8.0%
≤90d 45 +8.1% -2.2% 53% 42% +7.9%
all 182 -3.0% -12.3% 51% 34% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 34% +3.4%
10% -20.7% 31% -6.5%
15% -28.3% 29% -15.5%
20% -35.4% 23% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$80 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$622
Realized+$3,277
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses93 / 89
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions2
Markets (closed)182 / 184
History coverage168d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Paris Gentle Mates 48¢ 50¢ $392 $404 +$12 (+3%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Scotland 32¢ 32¢ $222 $218 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $338 +$207 +61%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 25 $375 +$225 +60%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 24 $181 −$176 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $304 −$304 -100%
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) Jun 23 $272 +$310 +114%
Map Handicap: EP (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 22 $100 +$101 +101%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $70 +$316 +450%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $406 +$219 +54%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $51 +$108 +212%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kurea Hayasaka Jun 11 $251 −$5 -2%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $273 +$415 +152%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $34 +$2 +7%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 09 $113 −$111 -98%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $92 +$104 +113%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $15 −$2 -14%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $346 +$214 +62%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $97 −$44 -46%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $360 +$158 +44%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 07 $104 +$69 +67%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $423 +$293 +69%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $106 +$106 +100%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 07 $224 +$19 +9%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 06 $33 −$32 -97%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) Jun 06 $234 +$434 +186%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Quali Jun 06 $231 −$229 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $97 +$57 +60%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $270 +$232 +86%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 05 $267 −$267 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 05 $88 −$88 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Ser Jun 05 $111 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Jun 05 $249 −$245 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Seri Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 04 $147 −$144 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $98 +$95 +97%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 04 $93 −$93 -100%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs Ghost Gaming GC (BO3) - VCT Game C Jun 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playo Apr 08 $580 +$642 +111%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Darderi Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: eSports Cologne vs Dortmund eSports (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolut Apr 07 $54 −$53 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 4 Winner Mar 18 $415 $0 -0%
Will Club Alianza Atlético vs. CD Moquegua end in a draw? Mar 16 $299 +$111 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 48¢ $398 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $321 22h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $6 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 32¢ $226 23h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $11 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $153 45h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $37 46h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 16¢ $74 46h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 16¢ $107 47h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $185 47h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $63 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $225 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $16 2d
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) SELL Pixel Lumina 100¢ $122 3d
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) BUY Pixel Lumina 44¢ $9 3d
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) BUY Pixel Lumina 45¢ $25 4d
Map Handicap: EP (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) BUY Barça eSports 47¢ $84 4d
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) BUY Pixel Lumina 47¢ $159 4d
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) BUY Pixel Lumina 47¢ $78 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $200 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $37 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $81 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $24 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $64 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 18¢ $1 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 18¢ $70 5d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 32¢ $51 5d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $76 15d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri SELL Virtus.pro 64¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $622.22 · official $585.50 · 608 history records