Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d5b…a718 other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 708d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$197,917 (-36%) realized −$202,007 · open +$4,090
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 59L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,701per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$23,668now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$21,421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$132,666
politics 25% −$43,105
sports 6% −$4,605
crypto 2% −$8,643
world 1% −$4,275
economics 1% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +87.3% +69.4% 25% 25% -99.9%
≤90d 4 +87.3% +69.4% 25% 25% -99.9%
all 95 -28.2% -35.1% 38% 29% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.1% 29% -42.8%
10% ← realistic here -41.3% 22% -48.3%
15% -46.9% 19% -53.3%
20% -52.1% 15% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -116% too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$8,264) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,365 vs −$4,795 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

708d coverage
Net worth$23,668
Realized−$202,007
Unrealized+$4,090
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage708d
Avg bet$5,701
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $14,894 $14,926 +$32 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,684 $8,742 +$4,059 (+87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $3 +$20 +649%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $11,564 −$11,183 -97%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $8,952 −$8,707 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,599 −$1,551 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $32,785 −$32,785 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 11 $10,747 +$2,070 +19%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $9,987 −$9,987 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $15,295 −$15,295 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 17 $6,061 −$6,057 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jan 17 $1,778 −$1,712 -96%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-15? Jan 16 $26,164 +$5,359 +20%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jan 13 $3,823 −$3,821 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 12 $7,095 +$9,405 +133%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 12 $521 −$521 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 11 $24,115 −$24,115 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $13,704 +$2,720 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05? Jan 05 $8,783 −$8,783 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $10,600 −$5,637 -53%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $9,600 −$9,600 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $22,699 +$13,208 +58%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 03 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $14,994 +$11,822 +79%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $19,892 −$19,892 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $17,740 −$17,740 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 22 $1,796 +$50 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 20 $18 +$16 +90%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $1,595 +$167 +10%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 13 $3,400 −$1,816 -53%
Will Arsenal vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Nov 22 $1,380 −$1,380 -100%
Will Germany vs. Slovakia end in a draw? Nov 17 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2025-11-17? Nov 17 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $348 +$852 +245%
Will Kazakhstan vs. Belgium end in a draw? Nov 15 $497 +$1,078 +217%
Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $484 −$484 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $658 +$328 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 10? Nov 10 $785 −$785 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 06 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $2,133 +$11 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 05 $3,100 −$400 -13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $1,389 +$345 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 04 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 04 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 04 $483 +$365 +76%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $1,295 −$1,295 -100%
Democratic sweep? Nov 04 $2,000 −$42 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 04 $513 −$512 -100%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 04 $441 −$441 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $4,211 +$70 +2%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? Nov 04 $1,000 +$472 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,338 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,606 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,878 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $5,274 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $9,962 1h
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL No $108 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL Yes $18 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL Yes $1 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL Yes $0 25d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL No $32 26d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL No $52 26d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL No $39 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $31 26d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 30¢ $1,542 26d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 28¢ $1,064 26d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 30¢ $1,500 26d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El BUY Yes 13¢ $3 26d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 31¢ $3,100 26d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 27¢ $479 26d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 30¢ $2,415 26d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 38¢ $171 26d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 26d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 15¢ $38 26d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 26d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 15¢ $71 26d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 26d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 26d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 16¢ $405 26d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 16¢ $445 26d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 16¢ $796 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,668.35 · official $23,668.35 (match) · 1442 history records