Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d5d…191d sports 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$122,529 (-16%) realized −$122,432 · open −$97
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%62W / 74L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,579per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$6,524est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,733now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,706
7 days−$39,935
14 days−$65,589
30 days−$39,079
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$54,245
other 45% −$78,283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -19.4% -27.1% 36% 36% -34.6%
≤30d 41 -5.7% -14.7% 46% 46% -20.3%
≤90d 136 -7.5% -16.3% 46% 46% -25.0%
all 136 -7.5% -16.3% 46% 46% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 46% -25.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 46% -32.2%
15% -31.6% 45% -38.8%
20% -38.3% 43% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$7,691) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4,736 vs −$5,758 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$2,733
Realized−$122,432
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses62 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$6,524
Open positions3
Markets (closed)136 / 139
History coverage70d
Avg bet$5,579
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 55¢ $1,830 $1,830 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $653 +$153 (+31%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $3,538 +$3,434 +97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $6,074 −$176 -3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $4,650 −$154 -3%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) Jun 20 $2,505 +$2,602 +104%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $19,548 −$19,250 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17,102 −$16,849 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $14,657 +$6,176 +42%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $28,601 +$24,612 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3,750 +$3,942 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $932 −$932 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4,769 −$4,769 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30,056 −$30,056 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,507 −$3,507 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5,008 −$5,008 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $9,748 −$361 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25,294 −$25,294 -100%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? Jun 06 $692 −$692 -100%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 06 $1,764 −$1,764 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 06 $2,724 −$2,724 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 06 $8,143 −$8,143 -100%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10,273 −$10,273 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 06 $12,980 −$12,980 -100%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $3,735 +$2,848 +76%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1,528 +$1,965 +129%
Spread: AC Sparta Praha (-1.5) May 24 $551 +$534 +97%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $17,709 +$5,415 +31%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14,675 +$16,059 +109%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3,321 +$2,858 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $3,577 +$3,335 +93%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $3,758 +$3,951 +105%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5,654 +$6,187 +109%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 23 $3,083 +$1,163 +38%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $7,691 +$7,171 +93%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $8,668 −$8,668 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $12,817 +$11,647 +91%
Will FC Baník Ostrava win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,785 +$1,732 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $16,662 +$14,339 +86%
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 173.5 May 23 $661 −$661 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 May 23 $790 −$790 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $4,986 −$4,986 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $4,328 −$4,328 -100%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $4,565 −$4,565 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $13,391 −$13,391 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 21 $17,933 −$17,933 -100%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-10? May 20 $9,017 +$8,242 +91%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 20 $1,527 +$1,740 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 19 $1,412 −$1,412 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $5,369 +$4,621 +86%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $16,004 +$16,165 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $1,855 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $5,898 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $6,074 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $3,538 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $4,496 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4,650 17h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 47¢ $200 26h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 47¢ $205 26h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 48¢ $48 27h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 48¢ $14 27h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 48¢ $266 27h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 49¢ $1,772 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $1,665 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $181 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $3,679 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5,307 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5,897 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5,897 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $14,024 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $10,156 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $4,501 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $926 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $926 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $949 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $949 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $507 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6,085 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10,141 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3,323 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,231 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,732.95 · official $2,732.95 (match) · 453 history records