Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d5e…da36 other 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,016 (+1%) realized +$2,016 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%39W / 143L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,274per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$440now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$36
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$147
politics 37% −$102
sports 14% +$2,247
culture 5% −$13
world 3% −$7
economics 2% −$6
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 -2.6% -11.9% 10% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 113 -1.3% -10.7% 6% 3% -8.8%
all 182 +1.2% -8.4% 21% 9% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 9% -8.8%
10% -17.2% 9% -17.5%
15% -25.2% 8% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,607) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$5 · ×13.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$440
Realized+$2,016
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses39 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,274
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $440 $440 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $1,924 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $2,875 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,866 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,834 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,204 −$5 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3,842 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,788 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $5,161 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,662 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $969 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 13 $188 +$3 +2%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $791 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $779 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,685 −$6 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,041 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,572 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $3,179 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,056 −$3 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 04 $69 +$67 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,710 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $523 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $218 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,617 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $279 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $619 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,729 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $440 32m
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $363 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $363 4h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $236 22h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $236 24h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $463 25h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $464 28h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $337 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $338 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $344 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $344 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $371 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $372 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $249 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $249 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $252 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $252 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $840 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $841 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $935 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $937 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $909 10d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $911 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $966 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $967 10d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $968 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.66 · official $439.66 (match) · 620 history records