Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8D 0x8d60…0ddf other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 579d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$194 (-5%) realized −$528 · open +$334
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$466per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$1,555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1,170
30 days−$1,170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$169
sports 7% −$44
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -81.2% -83.0% 0% 0% -83.0%
≤90d 4 -35.9% -42.0% 25% 25% -52.1%
all 5 -16.6% -24.5% 40% 40% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 40% -27.1%
10% -31.8% 40% -34.1%
15% -38.3% 40% -40.4%
20% -44.4% 40% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$334 vs −$411 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$1,555
Realized−$528
Unrealized+$334
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage579d
Avg bet$466
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $950 $1,298 +$348 (+37%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,441 −$1,171 -81%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $300 −$44 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $409 +$214 +52%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $749 +$454 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,555.20 · official $1,555.22 (match) · 89 history records