Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d60…4d1d crypto 333 markets active 1d ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-2%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%127W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$113
other 0% −$2
world 0% −$3
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -61.3% -65.0% 20% 20% -60.0%
≤30d 15 -46.0% -51.1% 33% 33% -54.7%
≤90d 24 -37.8% -43.7% 29% 29% -54.2%
all 332 -15.6% -23.7% 38% 36% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 36% -14.2%
10% -31.0% 32% -22.4%
15% -37.6% 30% -29.9%
20% -43.8% 23% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses127 / 205
Open positions1
Markets (closed)332 / 333
History coverage105d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$2 -64%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 21 $1 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 21 $2 +$3 +216%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 21 $1 +$2 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 16? Mar 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 14 $5 −$4 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 14 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 7? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Mar 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 14 $4 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 14 $2 +$2 +111%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 14 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 14 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 34h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 8¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 14d
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 89d
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 89d
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.40 · official $3.40 (match) · 1008 history records