Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d63…24f6 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$1
politics 29% $0
other 28% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 22% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 22% 0% -10.2%
all 29 -2.7% -11.9% 24% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage266d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $12 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $26 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 02 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $25 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $3 $0 -2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $24 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $25 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $25 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $4 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $5 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $14 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $20 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $4 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $24 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $11 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $4 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $7 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $25 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $4 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $22 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $7 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $19 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $26 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $26 28d
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 183d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $26 198d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 96¢ $25 241d
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 95¢ $26 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.29 · official $25.29 (match) · 130 history records