Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8d64…f266 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+16%) realized +$16 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$90
other 42% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 44% +10.4%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 44% +10.4%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 44% +10.4%
all 9 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 44% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 44% +10.4%
10% -18.3% 44% -0.2%
15% -26.2% 44% -9.8%
20% -33.5% 44% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$13 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $138 $140 +$3 (+2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 84¢ $60 $101 +$41 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $18 +$14 +79%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 +$38 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$35 +238%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$13 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $14 +$15 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $61 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $21 3h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $32 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $18 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $50 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 34h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $14 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $12 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $141 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.89 · official $240.89 (match) · 18 history records