Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d6d…af7e world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% $0
other 17% $0
politics 7% +$1
crypto 6% −$2
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 15 +4.6% -5.4% 33% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 15 +4.6% -5.4% 33% 7% -9.6%
all 47 -0.9% -10.4% 49% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage469d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $44 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $16 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $49 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +76%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $9 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 21 $9 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $8 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $9 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Browns draft Abdul Carter? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $9 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 07 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 27? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $14 $0 -3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $44 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $19 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $35 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $35 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $11 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $22 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $35 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $9 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $44 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $3 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $14 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $3 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $12 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.26 · official $43.26 (match) · 123 history records