Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d6e…7907 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% +$3
politics 21% $0
world 20% +$1
crypto 10% $0
culture 8% $0
sports 7% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 9% -8.9%
≤90d 11 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 9% -8.9%
all 56 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage281d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $71 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $2 $0 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 29 $8 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $25 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $4 $0 +3%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Asse Sep 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Sep 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 18 $6 $0 +6%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Sep 15 $1 $0 -20%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $36 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $33 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $1 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $33 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 2d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $12 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $25 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $36 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $17 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records