Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d70…9d4c weather 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$433 (-7%) realized −$433 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$19
14 days−$158
30 days−$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$273
other 32% −$9
weather 14% −$135
sports 3% −$61
politics 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +6.7% -3.5% 52% 33% -13.1%
≤30d 38 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 18% -16.3%
≤90d 38 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 18% -16.3%
all 38 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 18% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 18% -16.3%
10% -20.9% 16% -24.3%
15% -28.5% 5% -31.6%
20% -35.6% 5% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$30 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$433
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage29d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +33%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$22 +650%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $9 $0 -3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$10 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $9 +$7 +79%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +13%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $69 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $72 +$2 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 08 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 −$9 -18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 07 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $108 −$36 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $65 −$64 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,297 −$203 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,738 −$70 -4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,962 −$35 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $17 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $18 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 21h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 56¢ $9 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $9 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $31 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 80¢ $41 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 10¢ $1 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $35 2d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY No 88¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $69 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $72 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 54¢ $0 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 54¢ $3 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 54¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.28 · official $6.28 (match) · 94 history records