Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d70…cc5e weather 535 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$102 (+0%) realized +$195 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%287W / 239L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$173
14 days+$256
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% +$543
crypto 41% −$119
sports 2% −$392
world 1% −$23
other 1% −$31
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$7
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +0.1% -9.5% 62% 48% -2.7%
≤30d 174 -13.5% -21.7% 54% 43% -4.0%
≤90d 465 -16.6% -24.5% 53% 37% -8.1%
all 526 -14.4% -22.5% 55% 38% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 38% -9.2%
10% -29.9% 26% -17.9%
15% -36.7% 19% -25.9%
20% -42.9% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized+$195
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses287 / 239
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)526 / 535
History coverage128d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? No 92¢ 94¢ $198 $203 +$5 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? No 84¢ 92¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? No 74¢ 75¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? No 96¢ 94¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? No 57¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? No 72¢ 72¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? No 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24? No 77¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $22 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $202 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $118 +$25 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $176 +$15 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $9 +$16 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 +$12 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $2 +$13 +553%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $22 +$13 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $231 +$51 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $18 +$27 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $7 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Jun 22 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $7 +$8 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $11 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 +$11 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $9 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $17 +$8 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 22? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $136 +$13 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 22? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $185 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 +$17 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 +$6 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 +$10 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $127 +$28 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $144 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19? Jun 20 $59 +$7 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 84¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 74¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $199 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? BUY No 57¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 38¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 77¢ $39 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 77¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 78¢ $43 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 77¢ $18 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 52¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $76 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $89 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $60 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $14 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $14 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 90¢ $41 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 55¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $14 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $22 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $28 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $22 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $24 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $73 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 41¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY No 83¢ $42 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.76 · official $317.76 (match) · 2334 history records