Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d71…15d8 weather 1085 markets active 3h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,279 (+0%) realized +$3,487 · open −$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1058W / 16L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$818per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6,674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$118
14 days+$222
30 days+$573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% +$1,927
crypto 6% −$58
other 4% +$830
tech 2% −$244
finance 2% +$67
politics 2% +$404
sports 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 371 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 631 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 1074 +0.9% -8.7% 99% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 1% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,022) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$95 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$6,674
Realized+$3,487
Unrealized−$208
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1058 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1074 / 1085
History coverage246d
Avg bet$818
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1074 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 23? Down 97¢ 100¢ $2,641 $2,714 +$73 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $789 $786 −$3 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $738 $739 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? No 98¢ 70¢ $944 $669 −$275 (-29%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $464 $464 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $284 $283 −$1 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $233 $233 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $209 −$1 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $190 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $179 $178 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $419 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2,799 +$11 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2,690 +$5 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $268 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $597 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $536 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 21? Jun 21 $306 +$17 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $143 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 21? Jun 21 $468 +$7 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $260 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $474 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3,077 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,050 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $286 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $244 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 21? Jun 21 $157 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $694 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $621 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $512 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3,228 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 20? Jun 20 $890 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? Jun 20 $696 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $594 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $517 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $494 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $607 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $269 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? Jun 20 $737 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,541 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,073 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 20? Jun 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $393 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $2,015 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $391 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $364 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,579 +$8 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2,836 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $217 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $879 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $947 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3,051 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,938 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $284 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $210 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $789 2h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 100¢ $19 5h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 100¢ $266 5h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 97¢ $279 6h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 97¢ $2,080 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $945 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $179 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $210 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $190 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $464 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $233 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $738 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $419 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $55 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 24h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,799 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $599 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,497 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $506 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $536 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $597 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $268 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $99 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $81 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,673.72 · official $6,671.81 (match) · 2974 history records