Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8d74…f2ab sports 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,273 (-6%) realized −$7,313 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%183W / 190L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$1,656est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$766
7 days+$278
14 days−$4,329
30 days−$9,302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$8,702
other 15% +$633
crypto 10% −$1,433
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -9.5% -18.1% 41% 38% -8.0%
≤30d 354 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 46% -16.5%
≤90d 373 -9.8% -18.4% 49% 46% -16.2%
all 373 -9.8% -18.4% 49% 46% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 46% -16.2%
10% -26.2% 41% -24.2%
15% -33.3% 34% -31.5%
20% -39.9% 28% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$298 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized−$7,313
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses183 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,656
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 374
History coverage60d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Talia Gibson 34¢ 40¢ $247 $287 +$40 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $246 +$799 +324%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $501 −$255 -51%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $195 −$190 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $226 −$222 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $292 +$629 +216%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $146 −$120 -82%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$202 -99%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $199 +$132 +67%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $398 +$15 +4%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $170 −$167 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $321 +$354 +110%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $498 −$490 -98%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $302 +$70 +23%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $303 +$134 +44%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $305 +$615 +202%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka Jun 16 $961 +$506 +53%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 16 $454 −$446 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $504 +$148 +29%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $904 −$171 -19%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $288 −$283 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $327 +$357 +109%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $104 −$102 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $403 +$125 +31%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $242 −$239 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $198 +$234 +118%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $385 +$234 +61%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 14 $159 −$157 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $134 −$133 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 −$97 -98%
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 14 $143 +$4 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma Jun 14 $168 +$35 +21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $344 −$146 -42%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $130 +$211 +162%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $64 +$104 +162%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $298 −$46 -15%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera Jun 13 $87 +$34 +39%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 −$70 -69%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $113 −$111 -98%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $59 −$58 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $75 −$16 -21%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $296 −$291 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Mayuka Aikawa vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 13 $286 −$280 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $545 −$200 -37%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 −$27 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 34¢ $252 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $1,046 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 23¢ $246 4h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 23¢ $246 4h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 45¢ $501 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 20¢ $195 5h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 43¢ $226 6h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $921 6h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 31¢ $292 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 13h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 16h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 17h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $129 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 19h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 33¢ $331 20h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 29¢ $204 20h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 19¢ $199 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 42¢ $193 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Allura Zamarripa 60¢ $400 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 30¢ $204 21h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 32¢ $170 23h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 100¢ $675 24h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 45¢ $498 24h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 47¢ $321 25h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 67¢ $202 26h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Cosme de Ravel 81¢ $302 27h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 99¢ $437 27h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 68¢ $303 27h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 100¢ $920 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.96 · official $286.96 (match) · 826 history records