Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d74…04e3 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$13 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate25%20W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$21
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2
other 14% −$83
politics 13% +$26
sports 4% +$85
culture 2% −$8
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$4
economics 1% −$58
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.5% -28.1% 20% 20% -9.9%
≤30d 32 -17.1% -25.0% 12% 6% -15.7%
≤90d 70 -13.1% -21.4% 24% 6% -9.9%
all 80 -15.3% -23.4% 25% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 6% -10.1%
10% -30.7% 5% -18.7%
15% -37.4% 5% -26.6%
20% -43.5% 5% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses20 / 60
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)80 / 88
History coverage151d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $290 $292 +$2 (+1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $135 $132 −$2 (-2%)
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 28¢ $11 $6 −$6 (-52%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-32%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 17 $35 −$1 -4%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 17 $45 −$5 -10%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 17 $52 −$4 -8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 16 $53 +$10 +19%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 07 $14 −$2 -11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 07 $5 $0 -3%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $6 $0 -6%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $14 −$3 -20%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 07 $28 −$1 -4%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -84%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 06 $5 +$4 +77%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Jun 06 $13 −$4 -32%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 06 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 02 $26 −$5 -19%
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 +10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 02 $23 −$3 -13%
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $6 −$2 -31%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 02 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government May 30 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Neutrl launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 29 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 29 $6 $0 -4%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 29 $6 $0 -2%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $85 in May? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 29 $11 −$1 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $13 $0 +3%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May? May 24 $44 $0 -1%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $124 −$4 -3%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 18 $26 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $196 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $96 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $93 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 15 $90 $0 +0%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $94 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 14 $81 −$2 -2%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 09 $16 −$3 -18%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 09 $15 $0 -2%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 09 $26 −$2 -10%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 09 $29 −$1 -3%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 09 $54 −$2 -3%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m May 09 $27 −$2 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 05 $97 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $294 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $138 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 44h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 68¢ $34 2d
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 70¢ $35 2d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 35¢ $41 2d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 34¢ $48 2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $63 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 37¢ $52 12d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 37¢ $45 12d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 41¢ $53 12d
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? SELL No 65¢ $13 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 27¢ $5 12d
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? BUY No 72¢ $14 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 27¢ $5 12d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 27¢ $5 12d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 28¢ $2 12d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 28¢ $4 12d
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 59¢ $12 12d
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 12d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 12d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 12d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? SELL Yes 55¢ $26 12d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $27 12d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $3 12d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 4¢ $9 12d
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 12d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 12d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $14 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.19 · official $438.19 (match) · 307 history records