Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d76…6d96 crypto 987 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$229 (-3%) realized −$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%458W / 580L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day188.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$238
7 days−$207
14 days−$74
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$643
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 367 -46.5% -51.6% 26% 26% -14.0%
≤30d 1038 -11.2% -19.6% 44% 43% -10.2%
≤90d 1038 -11.2% -19.6% 44% 43% -10.2%
all 1038 -11.2% -19.6% 44% 43% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover188.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 43% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 42% -18.8%
15% -34.3% 41% -26.7%
20% -40.8% 40% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses458 / 580
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1038 / 987
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day188.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1038 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $9 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $9 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $9 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $13 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records