Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d77…4a28 other 12 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$11
sports 16% −$17
crypto 11% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -6.9% -15.8% 64% 64% -10.8%
≤30d 11 -6.9% -15.8% 64% 64% -10.8%
≤90d 11 -6.9% -15.8% 64% 64% -10.8%
all 11 -6.9% -15.8% 64% 64% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 64% -10.8%
10% -23.9% 64% -19.3%
15% -31.2% 45% -27.1%
20% -38.0% 18% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 62¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 +$11 +62%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $25 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $17 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $17 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.20 · official $25.20 (match) · 19 history records